Fourth-generation bike sharing models may also incentivize user based redistribution by employing demand-based pricing where users receive a price reduction or credit for docking bicycles at empty docking locations. A third feature of fourth-generation systems is the seamless integration of bike sharing with public transportation and other alternative modes, such as taxis and car sharing via smart cards, which support numerous transportation modes on a single card. In 2009, the Yélo bike sharing system was launched in La Rochelle, France. This system includes a smart card, which is fully integrated with the public transportation system. This facilitates multi-modal transportation linkages and user convenience, which could lead to greater auto ownership and usage reductions, as more daily trips are supported by alternative modes. However, creating a program that coordinates various forms of transportation on a single card is challenging, as this can be costly and often requires multi-agency involvement. Another area for improvement is bicycle security, which can be supported by ongoing technological advancement, such as the design and integration of GPS units into more robust bicycle frames that further enhance existing locking mechanisms, deter bike theft, and facilitate bike recovery. However, adding GPS units is costly and can potentially increase financial losses, if bikes with built-in GPS are vandalized or stolen. Finally, to target a larger scope of bike sharing users, fourth-generation systems may be more likely to incorporate electric bicycles, which enable longer-distance trips; encourage cycling on steeper hills and slopes; and lessen physical exertion requirements, particularly when users are commuting or making work trips in business attire. Over the past century, California has built an extraordinarily complex water management system with hundreds of dams and a vast distribution network that spans the state. This system generates electricity, provides flood protection, delivers reliable water supplies to 40 million people and sup ports one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. Yet development of the state’s water manage ment system has come at a price.

Damming waterways,microgreens grow rack diverting water from rivers and streams and altering natural flow patterns have transformed the state’s freshwater ecosystems, leading to habitat degradation, declines of freshwater species and loss of services that river ecosystems provide, including high-quality drinking water, fishing and recreational opportunities, and cultural and aesthetic values. The state aims to accommodate human water needs while maintaining sufficient stream flow for the environment. To support this mission, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey , The Nature Conservancy and UC have developed new techniques and tools that are advancing sustainable water management in California. At the center of these new advances is the need to understand the natural ebbs and flows in the state’s rivers and streams. Natural patterns in stream flow are characterized by seasonal and annual variation in timing , magnitude , duration and frequency . California’s native freshwater species are highly adapted to these seasonally dynamic changes in stream flows. For example, salmon migration is triggered by pulses of stream flow that follow winter’s first storms, reproduction of foothill yellow-legged frogs is synchronized with the predictable spring snow melt in the Sierra Nevada, and many native fish breed on seasonally inundated flood plains, where juveniles take advantage of productive, slow-moving waters to feed and grow. When rivers are modified by dams, diversions and other activities, flows no longer behave in ways that support native species, contributing to population declines and ultimate extinction. Thus, understanding natural stream flow patterns and the role they play in supporting ecosystem health is an essential first step for developing management strategies that balance human and ecosystem needs. Unfortunately, our ability to assess alteration of natural stream flow patterns, and the ecosystem consequences, is hindered by the absence of stream flow data. California’s stream flow gauging network offers only a limited perspective on how much water is moving through our state’s rivers. In fact, it’s been estimated that 86% of California’s significant rivers and streams are poorly gauged and nearly half of the state’s historic gauges have been taken offline due to lack of funding . Of those gauges that are still in operation, most are located on rivers that are highly modified by human activities and gauge records prior to impacts are limited. These limitations can be partially overcome with modeling approaches to predict the attributes of natural stream flow expected in the absence of human influence.

The predictions can then be compared to measured stream flow at gauging locations, or they can be used to estimate natural flow conditions in ungauged streams. In 2010, Carlisle et al. developed a modeling technique to predict natural attributes of stream flow and assessed stream flow alteration at gauges throughout the United States . Soon after, UC and TNC scientists began using the approach to expand and further refine the technique for applications in California . The models have evolved over time, but all rely on stream flow monitoring data from USGS gauges located on streams with minimal influence from upstream human activities. These are referred to as reference gauges. Some reference gauge data come from historical measurements made before significant modification of flows occurred, such as the years prior to the building of a dam. The remaining data are from reference gauges located in California watersheds that remain minimally altered by human influence. Once reference gauges were identified and flow records obtained from the USGS web-based retrieval system, we used geographic information systems to characterize the watersheds above each reference gauge based on their physical attributes, such as topography, geology and soils . We also assembled monthly precipitation and temperature climate data for the past 65 years for each watershed. The watershed variables and climate data were then compiled and statistically evaluated in relation to observed flow conditions at the reference sites using a machine-learning approach that uses the power of modern computers to search for predictive relationships in large data sets. An advantage of machine-learning techniques is the ability to make predictions from multiple model iterations , which tends to increase accuracy. Once we had developed and evaluated models using observed stream flow data from reference gauges, we could predict stream flow attributes for any portion of a stream or river in California for which the climate and watershed characteristics were known . Additional technical details of the modeling approach are provided in Carlisle et al. 2016 and Zimmerman et al. 2018.In a study led by Zimmerman et al. , we applied the machine-learning technique to assess patterns of stream flow modification in California. We did this by predicting natural monthly flows at 540 streams throughout California with long-term USGS gauging stations and comparing those predictions with ob served conditions. We then assessed how observed flow conditions at the gauges deviated from predictions and recorded the frequency and degree to which flows were either higher or lower than natural expected levels, while considering the uncertainty of model predictions. We found evidence of widespread stream flow modification in California . The vast majority of sites experienced at least 1 month of modified flows over the past 20 years and many sites were modified most of the time .

When stream flows were modified, the magnitude of modification tended to be high. On average, inflated stream flows were 10 times higher than natural expected levels, whereas depleted stream flows were 20% of natural expected levels. Overall, stream flow modification in California reflects a loss of natural seasonal variability by shifting water from the wet season to the dry season and from wet areas of the state to the drier south. Stream flow inflation was most common in dry summer months and for annual minimum flows. Conversely, flow depletion was most common in winter and spring months and for annual maximum flows. Unaltered sites tended to occur in places with relatively low population density and water management infrastructure, such as the North Coast,ebb and flow flood table whereas greater magnitude and frequency of alteration was seen in rivers that feed the massive water infrastructure in the Central Valley and the poulated Central Coast and South Coast regions. A key water management goal in California is to manage river flows to support native freshwater biodiversity. By estimating natural river flows and the degree to which they are modified, our work provides a foundation for assessing “ecological flow” needs, or the river flows necessary to sustain ecological functions, species and habitats. Assessments of ecological flow needs are generally performed at stream reach to regional scales , but rarely for an area as large and geo graphically complex as California. In 2017, a technical team that includes scientists from UC, TNC, USGS, California Trout, Southern California Coastal Water Research Project and Utah State University began developing a statewide approach for assessing ecological flows. The team has identified a set of ecologically relevant stream flow attributes for California streams that reflect knowledge of specific flow requirements for key freshwater species and habitats . Our modeling technique is now being extended to predict natural expectations for these new stream flow attributes. Model predictions of the natural range of variability for these ecologically relevant stream flow attributes will provide the basis for setting initial ecological flow criteria for all streams and rivers in California by the State Water Resources Control Board and other natural resource agencies.

These ecological flow criteria will be based on unimpaired hydro logic conditions, but they can be refined in locations where management and ecological objectives require a more detailed approach. For example, refined approaches would likely be required in rivers that must be managed for species listed under the Endangered Species Act or in rivers where substantial flow and physical habitat alteration makes reference hydrology less relevant for setting ecological flow criteria, such as in the Central Valley or in populated watersheds of coastal California. Our technical team also was involved in establishing the California Environmental Flows Work group of the California Water Quality Monitoring Council . The mission of the Work group is to advance the science of ecological flows assessment and to provide guidance to natural resource management agencies charged with balancing environmental water needs with consumptive uses. The Work group is comprised of representatives from state and federal agencies, tribes, and nongovernmental organizations involved in the management of ecological flows. It serves as a forum to facilitate communication between science and policy development and to provide a common vision for the use of tools and science-based information to support decision-making in the evaluation of ecological flow needs and allocation of water for the environment. The modeling technique described above has also been used to evaluate statewide water allocations. Grantham and Viers analyzed California’s water rights database to evaluate where and to what extent water has been allocated to human uses relative to natural supplies. They calculated the maximum annual volume of water that could be legally diverted according to the face value of all appropriative water rights in the SWRCB’s water rights database. Water rights were distributed according to their location of diversion, and the permitted diversion volumes were aggregated at the watershed scale to estimate a maximum water demand for each of the state’s watersheds. These permitted water diversion volumes were compared with modeled predictions of average annual supplies to estimate the degree of appropriation of surface water resources throughout the state . The study found that appropriative water rights exceed average supplies in more than half of the state’s large river basins, including most of the major watersheds draining to the Central Valley, such as the Sacramento, Feather, Yuba, American, Mokelumne, Tuolumne, Merced and Kern rivers. In the San Joaquin River, appropriative water rights were eight times the volume of estimated natural water supplies . The volume of water rights allocations would be much higher if pre-1914 and riparian water rights had been included, but these data were not available at the time.For example, comparisons of allocations with water use suggest that in most of California only a fraction of claimed water is being used. In a well-functioning water rights system where allocations are closely tracked and verified, an excess of water rights relative to supplies is not necessarily a problem. During water shortages, holders of junior appropriative rights would be required to curtail their water use. When water is abundant, most water rights holders should be able to fully exercise their claims.