About 88.7% of the pastoralists significantly felt the effects of climate change in the form of recurring droughts, whereas the other 7.5% expressed their moderate feelings towards the effects. The remaining 3.8% of pastorals said they were unaware of the effects or did not know at all. Similarly, semi-pastoral , agro-pastoral and mixed-farming communities significantly perceived that prolonged drought was a major challenge that mainly damaged their natural resource base and was followed by lack of feed and water for people and animals . Similarly, Masih et al. showed that drought severely harms the ecosystem and worsens human crises. More than 94% of pastoral, semi-pastoral, agropastoral and mixed-farming communities perceived that a lack of animal feed was their critical challenge during drought periods. Crop failure that directly causes scarcity of animal feed is also associated with lack of rain and drying of water sources . As a result, semi-pastoral , agro-pastoral and mixed-farming communities perceived that climate change, manifesting as drought, had significant destroyed crops. Households described that they experienced crop failure twice or more times within five years . These show that the Afar people are vulnerable to the vagaries of nature. Because existing streams and rivers are drying up, pastoral , semi-pastoral , agro-pastoral and mixed-farming communities significantly perceived scarcity of water across many villages in Aba’ala. These community members further perceived the effects of climate change in terms of rainfall variability, increased temperature, untimely raining and flooding, prevalence of animal and human diseases, shortage of food for human and drying of streams and other water sources . During drought, many livestock owners used the same water sources for their animals to drink from. As expressed by key informants, cattle herds that compete for similar water sources and grazing land areas were likely to be exposed to several diseases. This shows the need for introducing better cattle management mechanisms such as zero grazing, provision of clean water and improved veterinary services,indoor grow trays which may address problems related to disease prevalence when livestock herds compete for scarce sources .This study attempted to explore correlations between households’ perception of the changing climate and their adaptation actions applied in the last five consecutive years.

For the analysis, household’s perception runs from 0 = I don’t feel, 1 = I don’t know and 2 = I significantly felt. Table 3 presents percentage of households who perceived the adverse influences of climate change and their corresponding adaptation strategies. About 99.8% of pastoral communities perceived the ill effects of climate change. To cope with the effects, households pursue livestock mobility as their prime strategy. In the case of pastoral communities, we found that livestock farming was dominantly supporting their livelihood bases. Pastoral communities supplemented their living through livestock mobility to other potential areas where they could find water and natural grazing. On the contrary, about 94.1% of mixed-farming communities, 88.3% of agro-pastorals and 67.5% of semi-pastorals perceived livestock mobility as inferior strategy to other adaptation options. A statistical test shows households’ significant differences in pursuing livestock mobility associated with their perception differences. As shown in Table 3, perception of mixed-farming communities for practising zero grazing recorded the highest level . However, a small proportion of pastorals , semi-pastorals and agro-pastorals perceived zero grazing as an appropriate adaptation strategy. The study also showed that perception of households towards the use of pasturing and breeding was statistically insignificant differences among pastoral, semipastoral, agro-pastoral and mixed-farming communities. While 91% of mixed-farming strongly perceived livestock restocking as their means to respond to climate-related risks, pastorals , semi-pastorals and agropastorals showed only a negligible interest in this strategy. As reported by key respondents, most households perceived the importance of restocking, especially to improve their herds by purchasing drought resistant cattle and small ruminants. Perception of pastoral, semi-pastoral, agro-pastoral and mixed-farming communities towards the importance of livestock destocking accounted for 42.5, 36, 33 and 41%, respectively. Cropping was also extensively perceived as a pathway to cope with a multitude threats of climate change, upon which semi-pastoral , agro-pastoral and mixed-farming communities were highly dependent on to supplement their subsistence living.

Considering the strategy to reverse unexpected future climate shocks and uncertainties, agro-pastoral and mixed-farming communities used animal feed storage. This might be because livestock feed storage applied by the mixed-farming communities is associated with their long-term experience in cropping. Their involvement in cropping during good seasons allows them to harvest a sufficient amount of straw and hay, which would also enable them to keep stocking for unprecedented future feed crises. Key informants and group discussions further confirmed that feed stocking is possible, either through their own production, purchasing or both. Irrigation was also perceived as a strategy to adapt to climate change by pastoral , semi-pastoral , agropastoral and mixed-farming communities.Despite water scarcity being a major challenge in the Aba’ala district, mixed-farming communities used to grow cereal crops with spate irrigation. As reported by key informants, this practice started in the 1960s when cropping started in Aba’ala. Experienced farmers who were involved in spate irrigation described that the use of flood diversion into farmlands provided several benefits. For example, farmers were able to grow cereal crops, enrich water wells and ponds for humans and animals, alleviate moisture stress and keep ecological balance. With respect to pastorals and semi-pastorals, livestock mobility to other areas in search of water and natural grazing is crucial for sustenance .In addition to the aforementioned adaptation strategies, communities in the Afar region attempted to be involved in various income-generating activities. Income from livestock is among multiple sources that support the livelihoods of rural communities. As presented in Table 4, this sector serves as the main source of living for 105 pastoral, 40 semi-pastoral, 70 agro-pastoral and 98 mixed-farming communities. The contribution of livestock accounted for about 65.7% of the total income. In order to estimate the net income generated from livestock, all expenses made for purchasing fodder, payments for hired labour and fees for veterinary services were deducted from total gross income. All components of livestock income sources such as sales of live animals, milk, butter oil, hides and skins were accounted for. In the Ab’ala district, community members generated income from non-agricultural wages. For instance, 54 pastoral, 39 semi-pastoral, 54 agro-pastoral and 80 mixed-farming communities took employment from several organizations. Self-employment was also found as the key income strategy to the rural communities.

There were 15 pastoral, 6 semi-pastoral, 7 agro-pastoral and 23 mixed-farming communities who engaged in generating several income-generating enterprises. Households who engaged in crop production accounted for nearly 191 people across the district. Among these, 39 were semipastoral, 54 agro-pastoral and 98 mixed-farming communities. About 14% of the income of those household heads was supplemented from cropping. As shown in Table 4, both relief and remittance also contributed to households’ total income share by 14.1 and 0.23%, respectively. A total of 92 pastoral, 33 semi-pastoral, 59 agropastoral and 69 mixed-farming communities generate income from selling firewood and charcoal, accounting for about 4.1% of the total income and implying reliance on exploiting the natural forests for energy and commercial purposes . This may be taken as an indication of how income constraints can pressure rural people to keep on selling firewood and charcoal to meet their short-term needs without considering the longterm burdens on the natural resource base. Hence,2 tier grow tray continual damage of the natural forest can accentuate the negative effects of climatic change in the area. In this context, the key informants further recommended urgent measures to enable the fuel-wood sellers to shift to compatible income diversification alternatives like honey, salt mining, commercial tree plantation, livestock rearing and trading, which are eco-friendly livelihood alternatives. Similar conclusions made by Habibah et al. indicate that locals can be active participants in protecting the natural resources if they find that they could maintain their long-term benefits in sustainable ways.In the face of the changing climate and realizing the consequent adverse effects, rural communities in Afar continue applying a number of adaptation methods provided that they expect benefits out of their adaptation actions . In this section, we examine the linkages between various types of adaptation measures and their corresponding effects on the income of pastoral, semi-pastoral, agropastoral and mixed-farming communities in the Afar region. Prior to estimations, we conducted several tests to verify which model was appropriately needed for doing the analysis. As individual sampled households were proportionally drawn from the four types of communities, estimation of adaptation effects on income of households necessitates considering two key potential sources of variation, which means at both individual and group levels. While estimation using ordinary least square is useful to capture individual variations, random effects model incorporates non-systematic variances across groups and entities. Thus, mixed OLSrandom effects test allows distinguishing what proportion of the variance in income can be attributed by individual differences compared to group differences arising from the four communities . The estimated result of the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient shows that nearly 35% of the variance among household income is due to adaptation differences attributed to the four community groups, whereas the remaining 65% is due to adaptation differences across individual households.

As estimated results using ordinary least square regression only account for individual variations and ignore average variances across community groups, the use of OLS provides biased coefficients. Moreover, the null hypothesis of no differences among the parameters of the four community groups is rejected using the likelihood ratio test. Evidence of the likelihood ratio test versus linear regression yields Prob = 0.0000, which clearly shows the need to deploy other estimation methods. Considering these results, we further checked whether random effects or fixed effects model can appropriately capture both individual and group variations. Following Wooldridge and Baltagi , the statistical justification for the use of the fixed effects model over the random effects model was checked using the Hausman test. The test revealed that the null hypothesis that assumed random differences in coefficients is found statistically and significantly different from zero at 1% level . This justifies the rejection of the null hypothesis and the need to employ consistent estimation using the fixed effects model. Beyond this, we checked whether serial correlation had spiral effects on the dependent variable by applying dynamic fixed effects regression over four consecutive lagged years . The output showed that variations observed in the dependent variable were not statistically associated with unprecedented effects that might arise from previous years. The correlation coefficient between residuals within groups and the overall error term shows the effect of time differences across the panel years. As shown in Table 6, the attribution of such differences over the course of the five years was found to hold nearly 53.6% of the total variation in the dependent variable .The use of fixed effects model in this situation, therefore, distinctively differentiates the effects of adaptation measures applied by individual households from the effects attributed to panel years. As shown in Table 6, the results of the fixed effects regression show that the major adaptation actions that are found to have statistically significant effects on the income of households are water harvesting, livestock diversification, migration and production of hay and straw.The estimated coefficient on age of household heads may help associate both labour force age group and various adaptation measures applied at village level. As illustrated in Table 6, age of household head was negatively and significantly related to the annual mean income. The negative result of the household head’s age may indicate that older people who could not fit physically to accomplish adaptation activities cannot improve their income level. As uptake of improved adaptation practices is difficult for older households, they remain to stick on applying traditional practices that already known to them . This might be because older people usually tend to devote their time and resources on religious affairs. In the Afar culture, it is believed that old age is the time for doing charity and sanity. Considering the social and economic dynamic, key informants reported that older people usually do not commit in meeting long-term planning towards improving their income benefits.